I wans't going to comment on anything related to Bill Gates "exit" of Microsoft, but I saw this post from 37signals which predicts some layoffs at Microsoft.
Here is the problem with that: Microsoft has 5,000+ open positions right now. How the heck are they supposed to justify a major layoff? Think about all the lawsuits, the shareholders questions, etc.
Now, since I worked at Microsoft I was always in favor of a 10% workforce layoff! Why? There is so much dead-weight at that company.
I'm not talking only about the people underperforming (old-2.5s), but the people that are not adding value for the company, or, worse, are taking value away from it. Look at all the PR, HR, Marketing, Legal and those non-core jobs at Microsoft. They have to find something to do, so, they keep creating rules, projects, intranet sites, hallways posters(!), creating work for themselves. Same issues on the Product groups as well. Half of all Program Managers could be layed off without any consequence to the bottom line. And about 10-15% of all Testers and Developers could also go.
I once told a friend about why I thought that Seattle was not a hot place for startups as SF. I believe (he didn't buy it, though) it was because Microsoft never had a major layoff. Once that happens, people will be forced into action, including joining smaller companies, or founding their own. Currently, Microsoft is a huge drain in the NW, taking most of the great engineers from the region. This effect has slowed down a little because of the new "Web 2.0" wave and because of the anti-Microsoft feelings, but still is very strong.